← Back to fixtures

Ath Bilbao vs Espanol

Sat 21 Nov 2026, 13:00 UTC · Round 13 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Ath Bilbao win: 50.7%

Draw: 29.9%

Espanol win: 19.4%

Predicted: Ath Bilbao

Both Teams to Score

Probability of Yes: 35.4%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 46.7%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.81

More corners: Ath Bilbao (59.5% home / 40.5% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Ath Bilbao

Yes

Probability Ath Bilbao wins or draws: 75.1%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Ath Bilbao Clearest lean of the available outcomes (51% vs next-best 30%). (51.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score No (65.0% model probability) High

Corners Ath Bilbao (more corners) (60.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Ath Bilbao win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (75.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.